Daily Telegraph form analyst Matt Jones gives his best bets and run-by-run for Gosford.
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Race 5, No. 1: THE ICE QUEEN
It’s 61.5 kg, but it’s worth it in this class. He is a very consistent guy with a lot of good form around him. She has been tried comfortably and should produce a big fresh run.
Race 7, no. 9: OAKFIELD PAPERBACK
She was doing her best late at this track and distance first and drew better now. She can stand a touch closer and stalk them before letting them break.
Race 6, no. 1: VICTORIOUS LOVE
I like the improvement he showed in his trials, and at $10, he might be worth the bet on his debut.
Race 5: 1, 2, 6, 8
Race 6: 1, 2, 4, 5
Race 7: 4, 9, 11, 14
Race 8: 1, 2, 9, 10
Tom Sherry has a good book with Oakfield Paperback, Fast Response and Lovero that looks well placed.
Joe Pride has a very good team going in with My Eloise a good chance in second, while Smooth Flight and Beirut Miss go head-to-head in fourth and Slipstreaming is on debut in sixth.
INLAND POST FOR GOSFORD
Monastery will head to a weekend race so it will be easier on his opponents in the opener. Stablemate Chappelli will run in the race though. Distance is certainly not an issue and he deserves a change of fortune. Youthful ran a form race last start and will be looking to have one last crack at them. Savanaci moved to win over a mile last time and the extra distance won’t hurt. Her form was on wet ground though.
Bet: Chappelli to win
Shadow Legend ran third at the Hawkesbury behind a horse that went out and won in town on his next start, so from is strong and wasn’t weak on the line last time. My Eloise won well at the Hawkesbury last time in her fourth career run but was in a 4YO and Up maiden which are usually poor races. She won well though, so it’s not out of the question to continue with her in the class, and the market says so. Lucky Variety came from behind to win at Gosford last start from a break and went one better in second at her first start.
Bet: Lucky Variety to win
Shaka Rock was beaten last start by a horse who almost won the four furlongs and easily held off the horse in third, although the margin was not great. Still, he was a $31 chance in a four-horse field that day. Lady Superspy ran eighth of nine over 1300m but is much more suited to a mile where she won at Wyong so the tighter tracks are not a problem and she ran less than three lengths behind the first-up winner. Noble Cause is shooting for three straight wins but won on wet tracks.
Bet: Lady Superspy to win
You’d have to think Beirut Miss has come back better and is well placed in a weak race. The fact that Mr Wallace is the favorite says it’s not a strong race, but he’s third now so it’s time for him to give it his all. Ovoid obviously likes his new stable and ran well fresh off the benefit of a strong pace at the front. The road closure he did shouldn’t have come as a surprise given the race set-up. Smooth Flight will be more appropriate in this race from a place of speed.
Bet: Smooth Flight to win
See how Mr. Wallace fares in the previous race, as Lovero easily beat him, first up this track. That win should give him the confidence boost he needs to move up the class well. Has a fine turn of foot. Quilting does too and could be underrated here at $7.50 as an unbeaten horse. Stablemate Morean has a good gate with Brenton Avdulla booked and her form in Victoria should stack up well. A dry track won’t hurt. Glacier Queen is super consistent and is well placed at provincials. Her trial form is top notch.
Bet: Glacier Queen to win
There seems to be a lot in the engine of Amor Victorious who was a little green in his last attempt but won it comfortably and looks talented. Country Blues might start favorite from a winning barrier trial but was ridden right into it. It’s a good run for him though and he should be right on speed. Quick Response went too hard on debut and if he can find the back of one he will compete better. Arch Of Titus ran in the city in his first preparation and is well placed on this track as a guy with speed.
Bet: Amor Victorious to win
Oakfield Paperback really looked good as of late on this piece and I wanted to support it last week in town before it got scratched. She is well placed here in an open race. Kissing Supido is also well placed and has had three trials so he must be ready to perform. Now he’s a talented bowler, but he might be doing the wrong things. Overriding is on the market, but really had to be pushed to win a trial. Always In was comfortable in a barrier trial at this track and should race very well on debut although the gate is against her.
Bet: Oakfield Paperback to win
Change Is Coming collected in a 10-length barrier trial and should return a better horse than the one who showed promise in his first training. Those runs, however, were all on soft ground. Disparity was knocked down by an above-average guy at Hawkesbury last start and he held off the third-placed horse safely. He should handle Gosford with his positive racing pattern. Just In Reach comes into the provincials at the right time with two wins in his last two starts and will be positive.
Bet: Inequality to win
Originally published as Race day focus: Best bets, internal email for Gosford